He wanted me to know that his money was all on Israel.
I should be smart enough to get in on the ground floor with all of the Christian Zionists, Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jews, and so many Israeli and Diaspora Jewish leaders who know that while market conditions have changed over the last 63 years, maintaining a consistent and predictable approach has been, and is, the best long-term strategy.
When deciding how to invest in Israel, he was convinced that no diversification into Palestine was necessary. Maybe I was heavily weighted Israel, but why balance my portfolio? Any Palestinian investment, as far as he was concerned, was a sign I was “overweight” Palestine.
The rationale? You won’t see Israelis dabbling in ”new coke” efforts like trying to sell an untested statehood approach to the U.N. Israelis have much more confidence in their product, especially their 44 year old time-tested defensive ingredients that have helped them preserve territorial share.
In fact, Israelis and their Jewish community organizational investors have, with minor “new and improved” adjustments, been hugely successful selling the same regional security protection and “common values” product over and over and over (and over again). While some studies suggest that this product now has fewer customers among Israel’s natural customer base — Diaspora Jews and other democratic countries — and the Palestinians have (inexplicably) expanded their market share of previously unaligned customers, the U.S government is still a loyal customer, even willing to pay premium prices for a used product others have stopped buying. That was, in his mind, a sign of a strong brand identity, at least with America, Israel’s key customer.
Although Tzipi Livni and other Israeli politicians worry Israel could someday suffer a reduction in support due to economic pressures or a competitor like Turkey, that’s never going to happen as long as Avigdor Lieberman and Danny Danon are around to fight their anti-Arab, anti-Palestinian, anti-Turkey, and anti-whatever-they-believe-is-bad-for-their-Israel battles.
My self-appointed Middle East adviser then proceeded to give me his keen analysis of the overall world market and his buy and hold strategy. He said he was in possession of certain valuable non-public information that he was willing to share with me, as others had kindly shared with him. All he had to do was forward the email strings he received from fellow Jewish allies who specialized in recirculating ‘Obama Hates Israel’ emails.
But, first, he wanted to know why I would willingly join with anyone in driving down Israel’s value. Why ever use my blog to paint a dystopian portrait of anything connected to Israel? Did I have undisclosed Palestinian interests? Was I was just hoping to hedge my Israel play? I am a Jew, after all. I could always paint Israel as a Rembrandt, but I painted as if I owned no watercolors.
He was suspicious: Was I long Palestine and short Israel? Had I manipulated my canvass to sometimes only absorb black instead of prettier shades of Israeli blue and white?
He thought I needed an illustration: Glenn Beck, America’s leading expert on discovering and then alerting his radio and Internet audience to world conspiracies, and Pastor Hagee, head of Christians United For Israel and America’s leading expert on raising money to fight the many enemies of Christianity, Israel and morality (they are intertwined), aren’t even Jewish, yet look how much support and money they provide to Israel. They aren’t, as some suggest, making a hostile takeover attempt (at least in this life) to install their religious system or leaders.
It’s just that Hagee and Beck believe in Israel’s security and values-based sales strength and see opportunity for continued market expansion into the West Bank and Gaza. When they help overcome market impediments by identifying the several hundred thousand Israeli “tent protesters” — the ones who were supposedly fighting for economic and social concerns — as communists and socialists, and when they directly or indirectly support those politicians, organizations and settlement communities who can best help Israel’s territorial expansion, they stand proudly in Israel’s corner.
What do pro-Israel short-sellers — mostly left-wing noodniks — do? They actually lobby Congress and Diaspora Jews to oppose some Israeli policies. Israeli authorities are right to investigate and refuse their investment.
Why should any Israel investor care that Beck compared Reform Judaism to “radicalized Islam” or that his carefully researched ”world’s most dangerous list” had nine people listed and eight were Jewish? Coincidences happen.
None of this ultimately affects Israel’s value. Plus, Beck is a busy man and it takes a lot of time to look for conspiracies and Obama birth certificates.
And is anyone really concerned that Hagee once said God allowed the Holocaust to occur as part of a plan to assist Jews in returning to Israel? Hagee was clearly just struggling for a Holocaust explanation that matched his Biblical beliefs. Strong convictions are a sign of a good and loyal investor, and lots of nimble investors seek out suppositions and conjecture to support their preconceived notions. And (A.D.L. head) Abe Foxman forgave him. If it’s good enough for Abe, a key definer of celebrity anti-Semitism and what it means to be a kosher Israeli investor, then how can anyone else still dare to raise questions?
Then there’s noted journalist Caroline Glick, a source for so many revelatory email strings that “Snopes.com” could create a business model just based on fact checking her. She says that Beck and Hagee are better backers of Israel than liberal Jews in Israel and America who occasionally criticize Israeli actions. Why question this investment analysis?
Now to the heart of his investment spiel: Same store sales in the overall Jewish community may be down, but Israel’s Christian Zionist market share is almost 100%. And the U.S. Congress? They’d be forced to deal with their own unemployment issues if they didn’t buy. And the regional security dividends Israel pays are still huge.
So my only logical move should be to stop hedging. It makes no short term difference to over-analyze what Israel’s market share will look like in some distant future when Turkey is a much stronger U.S. ally and the Diaspora Jewish community can no longer see much of a reflection in their Israeli mirror. I should invest to get the visible and reliable short term returns. Long term returns are too speculative to worry about.
Just buy and hold. People who stay invested but occasionally reduce their support aren’t good for Israeli performance consistency. Stick to a set support plan.
Jewish teenagers and young adults, the ones many studies suggest aren’t buying Israel as much as prior generations, may or may not start buying more Israel as they get older. Why worry about that? Everyone can’t be a customer. Smart investors know that market impediments can always be overcome by focusing on growth opportunities in other markets.
America’s Jews, with the exception of the Orthodox branch, are declining in numbers anyway. Why should Israel focus on aligning its interests and values with a customer base that’s decreasing and insists on so many product changes?
Christian Zionists buy whatever Israel sells. Orthodox Jews, especially Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox religious party coalition partners, are still huge fans. They like Israel’s religious branding and their own ability to influence efforts to uphold the purity of who is allowed access into the Jewish buyers’ club. Shouldn’t Israel play to her best customers?
So it’s all good. Why fret about whether Israel is a country America’s Jews or even America will continue to support as much in a generation or two? Look at the big picture. Why should we care where the support comes from as long as it is enough support for Israel to remain a great investment opportunity?
His keen insight? I should be like Warren Buffett. Don’t make this all so complex. Look at Israel’s history of success and its leadership team. Consider the growth potential in the total market. Don’t let bothersome details of market composition be a concern — less Reform and Conservative Jewish buyers are far offset by the many more Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish and Christian Zionist buyers.
And the small country of Israel has managed to become a world leader despite all of the often violent market impediments. That’s important to consider. Israel has even shown great initiative, courtesy of some terrible competitor decisions, by dramatically increasing its share of its 1948 territorial partition and by creating some pretty tough barriers to entry.
So there’s no logical reason to believe that Israel, the Jewish homeland, can’t keep delivering the same product and prosper in the future as the Orthodox Jewish and Christian Zionist homeland. It’s all about avoiding new and untested strategies and giving your best coalition customers what they want.
